For the first time in modern Catholic history, bookmakers give serious odds on a pope from sub‑Saharan Africa. Cardinals Peter Turkson of Ghana, Fridolin Ambongo of the DRC and Ignace Dogbo of Ivory Coast lead a trio that embodies the Church’s demographic pivot southward.
A Church in transition
Catholicism’s centre of gravity has shifted dramatically: Africa’s flock grew from 272 million in 2022 to 281 million in 2023, a 3.3 % jump that dwarfs growth in Europe or North America.
By 2050, nearly four in ten Catholics could live in sub‑Saharan Africa, up from 24 % in 2010.
The frontrunners
- Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson (Ghana, 76) Former head of the Dicastery for Integral Human Development, fluent in six languages and an advocate for climate action, but dented by a 2012 synod misstep involving an anti‑Muslim video.
- Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (DRC, 65) Archbishop of Kinshasa, veteran mediator in Congo’s civil conflicts and outspoken on extractive industry ethics; critics say his confrontations with President Tshisekedi could alarm status quo electors.
- Cardinal Ignace Bessi Dogbo (Ivory Coast, 63) Theologian and president of the West African episcopal conference, praised for pastoral efforts during Côte d’Ivoire’s civil war; less known inside the Curia.
Ideological fault lines
While Francis broadened the conversation on LGBTQ inclusion and lay governance, many African bishops take more conservative stances SECAM openly rejected blessings of same‑sex unions in 2023, framing them as cultural “colonisation.”
Electing an African might thus tilt doctrinal emphasis back toward orthodoxy on sexual ethics even as it amplifies social justice themes on poverty and climate.
Geopolitics of the conclave
Roughly 135 cardinal electors will gather 15–20 days after Francis’s funeral; only 17 are African, versus 52 Europeans and 15 North Americans. Bloc voting is rare, but regional affinity and curial experience matter.
Vatican watchers note that cardinals from the global South often coalesce around a compromise figure acceptable to Italian and U.S. contingents Turkson’s long Roman résumé could fit that bill.
Grass roots hopes
In Accra’s Holy Spirit Cathedral, worshippers interviewed by Reuters said an African pontiff would make the Church “feel less distant” and bolster vocations already surging across West Africa.
Congolese Catholics point to Ambongo’s peace activism in the volatile east as proof that African pastoral realities deserve papal level attention.
Obstacles
Sceptics argue that none of the African contenders has run a major Vatican dicastery with the budgetary heft of the Secretariat of State, a credential many electors value after recent financial scandals. Others worry about diplomatic finesse on Ukraine and China.
What an African papacy might change
- Global South priorities – Expect encyclicals on debt justice, agrarian reform and equitable climate finance.
- Liturgical inculturation – Greater tolerance for local musical styles and vernacular innovations.
- Inter‑religious dialogue – Heightened focus on Christian‑Muslim coexistence, vital in the Sahel belt.
Conclusion
Whether or not the white smoke crowns a Black pope, the mere plausibility marks a watershed: Africa is no longer the Church’s future; it is its present.
